Has the 2008 presidential election effectively been decided? This morning Real Clear Politics, which tracks polls from all sources, moved Virginia from the "Toss Up" category to "Leaning" toward Sen. Barack Obama, pushing his estimated total of solid and leaning states to 277, seven more than the 270 required to win the Presidency.
Based on their reviews, Obama has solid support in states with 221 electoral votes and now with Virgina, has states leaning toward him with 56 electoral votes. So the question is, will the five Obama leaning states (Washington, New Mexico, Virginia, Michigan and Wisconsin) remain leaning or will they move back to toss up, bringing the campaign back to life?
Even if one of the states move back to toss up, the situation is dire for McCain. If you change the toss up states based on the current polls, Obama would finish with 364 electoral votes and McCain would have 174.
With Virginia now leaning toward Obama McCain is faced with the prospect of winning all tossup states and taking back some Obama states, not an easy prospect and probably the reason he going back on the attack.
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