Thursday, January 25, 2007

Kerry Out; Supporters move to Edwards?

In a not too surprising announcement, Sen. John Kerry announced on Wednesday that he will not run for President in 2008. While Kerry still retained a large campaign fund, and was among the top five candidates in polls listing prospective candidates, it had become apparent that it would be impossible to get past the GOP's and media's caricature of him, witness the Washington Post's Howard Kurtz's column one last long stab at him.

The question now is where will his supporters go. Many of Kerry's strong supporters got to know Sen. John Edwards during the 2004 campaign and one might expect many of those supporters to move their support to Edwards.

In fact Edwards might have gotten many of those supporters in the 2004 primaries but by early 2004 voters hadn't had enough time to get to know Edwards before Kerry locked up the nomination.

Three years later Edwards is as well known as any of the other top candidates and after seeing him in person in 2004, and in 2006, he is one of the few candidates who has the ability to energize crowds whenever he speaks. The defining characteristic of the 2008 race may be the candidates ability to get the public to believe in America again and there are very few who can challenge Edwards here.

When Democrats go to the polls in 2008, the move to front load the primary system may eliminate a number of candidates early on. Edwards, as the Democrats Vice Presidential candidate in 2004, will find it a lot easier to command media attention, and also the attention of the public and should be among the final candidates.

In addition, Edwards' signature issues are the issues getting the attention of the media. From Barron's story on Rich America, Poor America, to Lou Dobbs War on the Middle Class, or even Ben Steins New York Times column "A City on a Hill, or a Looting Opportunity," the media is figuring out that a high stock market doesn't mean all Americans are benefiting.

Too often in the past, many in the GOP looked at how well the rich were doing and assumed everyone was doing well. Perhaps it was an unwillingness to accept that Edwards raised the two America issue in 2004. As Edwards said at the 2004 convention, "This is not an African-American issue. This is not a Latino issue. This is not an Asian-American issue. This is an American issue."

Today more and more people are now figuring that there are two very different Americas and are becoming troubled about this development. And as more people think about it, its likely that Edwards will become the nominee.

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