Rand Paul's victory in the GOP Senate primary in Kentucky will be the lead story in all the media on Wednesday, implying that Democrats, and incumbents are in trouble. While the second part may be true, if you look a little closer at Paul's support and enthusiam for the GOP, it may well be a mile wide and an inch thick.
While it may be tricky to compare primary voter turnout numbers to project them to a fall election, but it is interesting to note that Paul and Trey Grayson got 95% of the vote in the Kentucky GOP primary, or approximately 330,000 votes. By comparison the top two Democrats got 87% of the Democratic vote, or 440,000 votes.
Overall the difference was much worse as approximately 500,000 people voted in the Democratic primary and around 350,000 in the GOP primary.
Will the 150,000 majority hold for the Democrats, who knows but if I was a Republican in Kentucky and know that, in effect, a national party primary took place in my state and the other party turned out 150,000 more voters for a less well known contest would have me concerned.
But it's doubtful the media will bother to look this closely at the numbers, as it doesn't fit the narrative of the people rising up in the election. Maybe the readers will bug them enough they will have to notice it.
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