While the GOP turnout was higher than the last non-presidential primary it still shows Paul has a long way to go to win. In 2007 more than 202,000 voted in the Republican primary and 348,000 voted in the Democratic primary.
More than 520,000 people turned out on Tuesday for the Democratic primary and looking at previous turnout for non-presidential general elections, at best Kentucky is looking at a turnout of 1.3 million in November.
With an expected turnout of 1.2 to 1.3 million in November that means the winner will need to get 600,000 to 650,000 votes to win in a two way race. With a base of 520,000 voters showing up for their primary, it will be a lot easier for the Democrats to get 80,000 to 130,000 additional votes, while the GOP faces the challenge of getting 300,000 to 350,000 votes.
While there may be some Democratic primary voters who vote for Paul in the fall, it is more likely that it will be offset by Trey Grayson voters defecting from the GOP. The GOP's hope, perhaps, is that turnout will be closer to the 1.8 million that showed up for the 2008 election and where 953,000 voted for Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) to win with 53% of the vote.
The GOP will also claim that more Kentuckians are registered as Democrats but vote as Republican in general elections. However, in a year where the GOP electorate is supposedly "energized" it is difficult to see how they they can easily triple their primary turnout.
So while Republicans may be excited about the fall’s prospects Super Tuesday may have been the beginning of the end for the GOP to make advances this year.
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